Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) investors faced a brutal wake-up call as shares plummeted 20% in pre-market trading – the company’s worst single-day drop in a decade. The catalyst? A shocking downward revision of Wegovy’s sales forecast, coupled with intensifying pressure from Eli Lilly’s superior obesity drug Zepbound. This pharmaceutical showdown reveals critical shifts in the $100 billion GLP-1 market.
Why Did Novo Nordisk Stock Collapse?
The Danish pharma giant slashed its 2025 Wegovy sales growth projection from 21% to just 14%, triggering panic selling. Three critical factors drove this decision:
- Eli Lilly’s Zepbound demonstrates 20.2% average weight loss vs Wegovy’s 13.7%
- Compounded semaglutide alternatives flooded the market during Novo’s supply shortages
- Leadership transition as 30-year CEO Lars Jørgensen hands reins to outsider Maziar Doustdar
GLP-1 Market Share Battle Heats Up
| Metric | Novo Nordisk | Eli Lilly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Market Share | 62% | 32% |
| Weight Loss Efficacy | 13.7% (Wegovy) | 20.2% (Zepbound) |
| Therapeutic Approvals | Obesity | Obesity + Sleep Apnea |
Novo’s Pipeline: Salvation or Stopgap?
The company pins hopes on two experimental drugs:
- CagriSema (2026 target): 13.7% weight loss but 72.5% side effect rate
- Amycretin: Early data shows 24.3% weight loss, potentially solving Zepbound’s plateau issue
Can Novo Nordisk Stock Recover?
Analysts remain divided with 16 Buy, 11 Hold, and 3 Sell ratings. The upcoming August 6 earnings report may determine whether this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a market share collapse. While Novo’s brand strength and innovation pipeline offer hope, investors should brace for continued volatility in this fiercely competitive space.
FAQs
Q: How much has Novo Nordisk stock dropped this year?
A: Shares have fallen 27.6% in the past week, trading at $50 compared to a 52-week average of $92.69.
Q: What gives Eli Lilly’s Zepbound an advantage?
A: Zepbound shows superior weight loss (20.2% vs 13.7%), additional sleep apnea approval, and no reported weight plateau effect.
Q: When will Novo Nordisk’s new drugs launch?
A: CagriSema could file for approval in 2026, while Amycretin remains in earlier development phases.
Q: Are compounded versions of Wegovy still available?
A: Yes, despite the FDA declaring the semaglutide shortage over in February 2025, regulatory gray areas persist.
