Bitcoin Bull Run: Analyst Predicts Final Surge Within 3 Years As Macroeconomic Tides Turn

A significant macroeconomic shift may be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s final, powerful bull market cycle within the next three years, according to a prominent cryptocurrency analyst. This potential surge hinges on converging signals from traditional finance, including pivotal Federal Reserve policy changes and key economic indicators like the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The analysis arrives amid unprecedented institutional adoption via spot ETFs, creating a unique financial landscape for the world’s premier cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Bull Run Forecast: The Macroeconomic Catalyst

Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently outlined a compelling case for a major Bitcoin advance. He bases this forecast on observable shifts in the foundational macroeconomic environment. Central to his thesis is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a leading economic indicator. Van de Poppe argues this index is poised to cross above the critical 50-point threshold. This level separates economic contraction from expansion. A sustained move above 50 would mark the first such occurrence in three years, signaling a potential rejuvenation of the business cycle. Historically, transitions from contraction to expansion have created fertile ground for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Remarkably, Bitcoin has already demonstrated resilience during the recent negative business cycle. Analysts attribute this strength primarily to two factors:

Spot Bitcoin ETF Launches: The January 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States unlocked a massive wave of institutional and retail capital. These funds provide a regulated, familiar vehicle for investment, fundamentally altering market structure and demand.
Available System Liquidity: Despite a period of quantitative tightening (QT), significant liquidity remains within the global financial system. This liquidity has sought yield and hedges against inflation, with Bitcoin capturing a portion of these flows.

The Federal Reserve’s Pivotal Role

The analyst’s projection heavily incorporates anticipated actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Market consensus suggests the central bank is preparing for a notable policy pivot. This pivot involves two key phases:

Ending Quantitative Tightening (QT): The Fed would halt the reduction of its balance sheet, ceasing the withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system.
Initiating Quantitative Easing (QE) and Rate Cuts: Subsequently, the Fed would likely restart asset purchases (QE) and begin cutting the federal funds rate to stimulate economic growth.

Such a shift from monetary contraction to expansion historically weakens the U.S. dollar and boosts the valuation of scarce, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin. The timeline for this pivot remains a primary focus for investors across all asset classes.

Parallel Signals from Traditional Safe Havens

Van de Poppe further supports his analysis by pointing to concurrent action in traditional safe-haven markets. Last week, both gold and silver prices achieved new all-time highs. This breakout in precious metals is not an isolated event. Many economists interpret it as a broader signal of changing market cycles. Investors often flock to gold and silver during periods of anticipated currency debasement, geopolitical uncertainty, or inflationary pressure. The simultaneous strength in these ancient stores of value and a modern digital asset like Bitcoin suggests a common macroeconomic driver.

The table below summarizes the key indicators cited in the bullish Bitcoin thesis:

Indicator	Current Signal	Potential Impact on BTC
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Approaching expansion (>50)	Signals economic recovery, boosts risk appetite
Federal Reserve Policy	Pivot from QT to QE expected	Increases system liquidity, weakens USD
Gold & Silver Prices	Making new all-time highs	Indicates loss of confidence in fiat, demand for alternative stores of value
Bitcoin ETF Flows	Consistent net inflows post-launch	Provides structural, sustained buying pressure

A Counter Perspective on Market Indicators

However, not all experts align with this interpretation. Benjamin Cowen, a well-regarded cryptocurrency analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, offers a dissenting view. Cowen cautions against over-reliance on the ISM index for predicting Bitcoin’s price trajectory. He argues that while macroeconomic indicators provide useful context, Bitcoin often follows its own unique cycles driven by internal factors like halving events and adoption curves. Cowen’s analysis typically emphasizes on-chain metrics and longer-term moving averages over short-term macroeconomic data. This debate highlights the complex, multi-factor nature of cryptocurrency valuation, where no single indicator holds absolute predictive power.

The Final Bull Run Thesis and Economic Context

Van de Poppe’s analysis carries a profound, longer-term implication. He posits that the coming bull market could represent Bitcoin’s “final” major cycle before the onset of a significant global economic depression. This perspective views the projected surge not merely as another boom, but as a last major price discovery event fueled by macro desperation and a flight from traditional systems. In this scenario, Bitcoin would transition from a speculative growth asset to a cemented global reserve asset during the subsequent downturn. This thesis remains highly speculative but is grounded in the observation that Bitcoin’s adoption S-curve is progressing while traditional fiscal and monetary tools appear increasingly strained.

The potential bull run would unfold against a backdrop of unprecedented institutional involvement. The existence of spot ETFs means capital flows are more transparent and potentially more stable than in previous cycles dominated by retail speculation and unregulated exchanges. Furthermore, regulatory frameworks, though still evolving, are becoming clearer in major economies like the European Union with MiCA. This maturation of the market infrastructure could fundamentally alter the volatility profile and duration of the next cycle.

Conclusion

The prediction of a final Bitcoin bull run within three years rests on a confluence of macroeconomic factors now showing early signs of alignment. The anticipated shift in the ISM PMI, a pivot in Federal Reserve policy, and breakouts in traditional safe havens like gold collectively form a compelling narrative for cryptocurrency advocates. While analysts like Benjamin Cowen urge caution regarding specific indicators, the broader trend of institutional adoption via ETFs provides a tangible, new foundation for demand. Whether this culminates in a historic final surge or another cyclical peak, the interplay between Bitcoin and global macroeconomics has never been more critical for investors to understand. The next 36 months will likely test these theses and define Bitcoin’s role in the next chapter of global finance.

FAQs

Q1: What is the ISM Manufacturing PMI and why does it matter for Bitcoin?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a key economic indicator surveying purchasing managers. A reading above 50 signals expansion, which generally boosts investor confidence and appetite for riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.

Q2: How could Federal Reserve policy changes affect Bitcoin’s price?
A shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) involves printing new money and increasing system liquidity. Historically, increased liquidity and lower interest rates weaken the U.S. dollar and can drive capital into alternative stores of value like Bitcoin, potentially boosting its price.

Q3: What is meant by a “final” Bitcoin bull run?
The term “final bull run” is a speculative thesis suggesting the next major price surge could be the last of its kind before Bitcoin’s market matures and its volatility decreases significantly. It implies a transition from a high-growth speculative asset to a more stable global monetary asset.

Q4: Do all analysts agree that the ISM PMI predicts Bitcoin’s price?
No. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen argue that Bitcoin often follows its own internal cycles (like the halving) and that traditional macroeconomic indicators have a inconsistent correlation with its price over meaningful timeframes.

Q5: How have spot Bitcoin ETFs changed the market dynamics for a potential bull run?
Spot ETFs have opened the door for massive, regulated institutional investment. They provide a simple, familiar pathway for capital from retirement funds and large asset managers, creating a new, structural source of demand that was largely absent in previous bull markets.

Bitcoin Bull Run: Analyst Predicts Final Surge Within 3 Years as Macroeconomic Tides Turn