Global cryptocurrency markets witnessed a significant development this week as Bitcoin surged past critical resistance levels, reaching a two-month high of $97,850 while revealing crucial insights about long-term holder behavior that could signal the next major market phase. According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha weekly report published on November 18, 2025, the slowing pace of Bitcoin long-term holder sell-offs represents a potentially transformative signal for the world’s leading cryptocurrency, suggesting that the $93,000-$110,000 resistance zone may soon yield to sustained upward momentum.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders and the Critical Resistance Zone
Bitfinex’s comprehensive market analysis identifies the $93,000-$110,000 range as a historically significant resistance area where long-term holders (LTHs) have consistently engaged in concentrated selling activity. These investors, typically defined as addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, represent approximately 68% of circulating supply according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. Their collective behavior creates substantial market pressure that has repeatedly limited upward price movements throughout 2024 and early 2025.
The exchange’s report provides crucial context about this resistance zone’s formation. Following Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $89,200 in March 2024, the cryptocurrency entered an extended consolidation period. During this phase, approximately 1.2 million BTC moved into the long-term holder category as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach amid regulatory developments and macroeconomic uncertainty. This accumulation created what analysts now recognize as a “supply overhang” that must be absorbed before sustainable price appreciation can occur.
Understanding Long-Term Holder Psychology
Market psychologists and behavioral economists have extensively studied long-term holder patterns in cryptocurrency markets. Dr. Elena Rodriguez, a financial behavior researcher at Stanford University, explains that “long-term Bitcoin holders typically exhibit distinct psychological thresholds where they become willing to realize profits. These thresholds often cluster around psychologically significant price levels, creating what technical analysts call ‘supply walls.'”
The current resistance zone between $93,000 and $110,000 represents one such psychological barrier where approximately 850,000 BTC held by long-term investors entered profitable territory during the 2024 bull market. Historical data from previous cycles shows similar patterns: during the 2017 cycle, resistance clustered around $19,500, while the 2021 cycle saw concentrated selling between $58,000 and $64,000.
The Short Squeeze Catalyst and Market Structure Improvement
Bitfinex’s analysis reveals that last week’s price surge to $97,850 triggered the most significant short squeeze in 100 days, fundamentally altering market dynamics. A short squeeze occurs when traders who have bet against an asset (shorted it) are forced to buy back their positions as prices rise, creating additional upward pressure. This phenomenon cleared approximately $2.3 billion in leveraged positions according to derivatives data from Coinglass, resulting in what Bitfinex describes as “a somewhat improved market structure.”
The exchange’s report provides specific metrics demonstrating this structural improvement:
- Open Interest Reduction: Total Bitcoin futures open interest declined by 18% during the squeeze
- Leverage Reset: Estimated leverage ratio across major exchanges dropped from 0.22 to 0.17
- Funding Rate Normalization: Perpetual swap funding rates returned to neutral after extended periods of negativity
- Liquidation Cascade: Approximately 45,000 traders experienced liquidations totaling $850 million
This deleveraging event created healthier foundation for potential continued appreciation by removing excessive speculative positions that could have amplified downward movements during any subsequent correction.
Comparative Analysis with Previous Cycles
Historical context reveals important parallels between current market conditions and previous Bitcoin cycles. During the 2020-2021 bull market, long-term holder selling pressure peaked approximately 8-10 months before the cycle’s ultimate top. The current slowing of LTH sell-offs, if sustained, could follow a similar pattern where reduced selling pressure precedes significant price acceleration.
| Cycle Period | Resistance Zone | LTH Selling Peak | Time to Cycle Top |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-2017 | $19,200-$20,000 | April 2017 | 8 months |
| 2020-2021 | $58,000-$64,000 | October 2020 | 6 months |
| 2024-2025 | $93,000-$110,000 | Current (slowing) | TBD |
The Slowing Sell-Off Signal: Data and Implications
Bitfinex’s most significant finding concerns the deceleration in long-term holder selling volume. The report indicates that weekly selling volume based on realized profits has declined to approximately 12,800 BTC, representing a 42% reduction from peak levels observed in September 2025. This metric, derived from on-chain analysis of UTXO age bands and profit-taking behavior, provides quantifiable evidence of changing holder psychology.
Several factors potentially contribute to this slowing sell-off pattern:
- Improved Macroeconomic Conditions: With inflation returning to target levels in major economies, some long-term holders may perceive reduced urgency to realize profits
- Institutional Adoption Acceleration: Increased Bitcoin allocation by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds provides alternative demand sources
- Regulatory Clarity: Clearer cryptocurrency frameworks in the EU, UK, and UAE reduce uncertainty for long-term investors
- Technological Developments: Layer-2 scaling solutions and improved custody options enhance Bitcoin’s utility proposition
Michael Thompson, head of research at blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, notes that “when long-term holder selling decelerates while price maintains key support levels, historically this has preceded significant upward movements. The current data suggests we may be witnessing the early stages of such a transition.”
On-Chain Metrics Supporting the Thesis
Additional on-chain data reinforces Bitfinex’s analysis. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders has declined from 3.2 to 2.8 over the past month, indicating reduced profit-taking intensity. Meanwhile, the percentage of Bitcoin supply last active more than one year ago remains near all-time highs at approximately 65%, suggesting strong conviction among the most experienced cohort of investors.
Network fundamentals also support continued strength. Bitcoin’s hash rate reached 750 exahashes per second in October 2025, representing a 25% year-over-year increase despite the recent halving event reducing miner rewards. This demonstrates robust network security and miner confidence in long-term viability.
Potential Scenarios and Market Implications
If the slowing long-term holder sell-off trend continues, Bitfinex suggests Bitcoin could break through the $93,000-$110,000 resistance zone and resume its rally toward new all-time highs. The exchange outlines several potential scenarios based on historical precedent and current market structure:
Base Case Scenario: Continued gradual absorption of long-term holder supply over 2-3 months, followed by breakout above $110,000 with initial target around $135,000 based on Fibonacci extension levels from the 2024 low.
Accelerated Scenario: Rapid reduction in LTH selling combined with institutional inflow acceleration could produce faster breakout within 4-6 weeks, potentially reaching $150,000 by mid-2026.
Extended Consolidation Scenario: Should macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or regulatory developments create uncertainty, Bitcoin might experience prolonged consolidation within the current range before eventual resolution upward.
The report emphasizes that while technical factors appear favorable, external variables including Federal Reserve policy decisions, geopolitical developments, and broader equity market performance will significantly influence the timing and magnitude of any breakout.
Institutional Perspective and Market Evolution
Institutional participation represents a crucial differentiating factor in the current cycle compared to previous ones. According to data from Fidelity Digital Assets, institutional Bitcoin holdings increased by approximately 40% year-over-year despite price volatility. This growing institutional base may provide more stable demand that can absorb long-term holder selling with reduced price impact.
Sarah Chen, portfolio manager at Global Digital Asset Fund, observes that “institutional investors typically employ dollar-cost averaging strategies rather than timing market tops. This creates more consistent buying pressure that can help markets work through resistance zones more efficiently than in purely retail-driven cycles.”
Conclusion
Bitfinex’s analysis of Bitcoin long-term holder behavior reveals a potentially pivotal market development as selling pressure shows signs of deceleration within a critical resistance zone. The combination of reduced LTH selling volume, improved market structure following significant deleveraging, and strengthening network fundamentals creates conditions conducive to eventual breakout above the $93,000-$110,000 range. While external factors will inevitably influence the timing and trajectory, the slowing pace of Bitcoin long-term holder sell-offs represents one of the most encouraging on-chain signals observed in recent months, suggesting that patient accumulation strategies may soon yield substantial rewards as the market prepares for its next major phase.
FAQs
Q1: What defines a Bitcoin long-term holder?
Long-term holders (LTHs) are typically defined as addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, though some analyses use 6-month or 1-year thresholds. These investors generally exhibit lower trading frequency and higher conviction than short-term holders.
Q2: Why does long-term holder selling create resistance zones?
When Bitcoin reaches price levels where many long-term holders become profitable, some choose to realize gains, creating concentrated selling pressure. This selling must be absorbed by new demand before prices can advance further, creating temporary resistance.
Q3: How significant is the current $93,000-$110,000 resistance zone?
This zone represents where approximately 850,000 BTC held by long-term investors entered profitable territory. Historical precedent suggests such concentrations of profitable supply typically require several months to work through before sustainable breakouts occur.
Q4: What other indicators support the slowing sell-off thesis?
Additional supporting data includes declining Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders, reduced exchange inflows from aged wallets, and stabilization of the Long-Term Holder Supply metric after several months of gradual decline.
Q5: How might institutional investment affect this dynamic?
Institutional investors typically employ systematic accumulation strategies that provide more consistent demand. This can help absorb long-term holder selling with reduced price impact compared to previous cycles dominated by retail speculation.
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