Analyst Flags Four Post-Midterm Bitcoin Drops Ahead of Nov. 3 Vote
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that Bitcoin could come under renewed selling pressure after the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, pointing to price declines that followed four previous midterm votes, Finbold reported on September 29.
In a post on X, Martinez said Bitcoin fell 72%, 65%, 52% and 27% after the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections respectively. He stated that the record does not prove elections caused those declines, but called the pattern worth monitoring with the next vote set for November 3, 2026. At press time, September 29, Bitcoin was trading at $84,180 after a 0.55% 24-hour gain, according to Finbold.
Key facts
- Martinez cited post-midterm Bitcoin declines of 72% (2010), 65% (2014), 52% (2018) and 27% (2022).
- The next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Bitcoin traded at $84,180 on September 29, up 0.55% over 24 hours, per Finbold.
- Martinez said a repeat of the pattern would put the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 in focus as a key support zone.
- Coinpedia reported Bitcoin pulled back from a recent high near $87,400 and was trading at about $84,276 against that same $73,000 cost basis.
Mixed fourth-quarter record complicates the election thesis
Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter history is not uniformly negative. Finbold reported the asset surged 391% in Q4 2010, then fell 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022.
Coinpedia added that a Coinglass chart shows Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the three previous U.S. midterm years, framing the late-2026 setup as a question of whether a pre-election correction is another consolidation phase or the start of sustained weakness. Coinpedia also noted Bitcoin has historically entered stronger upward phases after previous election-related periods, a longer-term read that sits in contrast to the near-term caution.
The two reports differ slightly on the spot price used as a reference point. Finbold cited $84,180 as of its September 29 publication, while Coinpedia put BTC at around $84,276 and described it as pulling back from a recent high near $87,400. Both outlets reported the short-term holder cost basis at about $73,000.
Martinez tied that level to the midterm pattern directly, writing that if the post-midterm setup repeats, the cost basis near $73,000 could become the key support zone, and noting that during confirmed bull markets the level has often held through major corrections. Finbold noted that a day earlier, Martinez had pointed to a potential move toward $100,000 in the medium term if BTC held above an $82,000 neckline.
Why it matters
Analyst commentary framed around election calendars is difficult to act on, because the sample is four votes and the outcome has varied widely, from a 72% drawdown to a 27% one. The practical reference point for holders is the $73,000 short-term cost basis Coinpedia also highlighted using a Glassnode-based chart: it marks where recent buyers sit, so a sustained break below it would pressure a cohort that is currently in profit. Coinpedia noted the current gap to that level gives Bitcoin room before such pressure builds, and that the $84,000 to $85,000 region is the nearer test. Any forward view here is speculative, not financial advice; crypto markets are volatile and no outcome is certain.
What to watch
The November 3 midterm elections are the deadline the analysis hangs on, with the start of the fourth quarter and the reaction around $84,000-$85,000, followed by the $73,000 cost basis, the nearer signals both outlets flagged.
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.
Sources: Finbold, Coinpedia
