XRP Holds Near $1.50 as $1.53 Breakout Level Stays Unconfirmed

XRP traded near $1.50 on October 4, 2026, still short of the level analysts regard as the breakout trigger, Blockonomi reported. The token gained about 1% over the prior 24 hours and moved inside an intraday range near $1.49 to $1.51, according to CoinGecko data cited by the outlet.

Analyst Ali Martinez described a contracting triangle on the four-hour chart, with price squeezed between descending resistance and rising support as it approaches the pattern’s apex. He said confirmation requires a four-hour close above $1.53, with a first upside target at $1.62 — roughly 8% above the $1.50 area. XRP briefly touched $1.55 on October 2 but failed to establish sustained control, which is why a repeat intraday push through the level would not by itself confirm the pattern.

Key facts

• XRP traded near $1.50 on October 4, 2026, up about 1% over 24 hours, per Blockonomi.
• Martinez said a four-hour close above $1.53 is needed to confirm the triangle breakout, with $1.62 as his first target.
• More Crypto Online flagged $1.67, $1.93 and $2.25 as resistance levels in a wider Elliott Wave setup, with a Fibonacci target zone at $2.14–$2.99.
• U.today reported aggregate whale balances are frozen at 3.9 billion XRP tokens.
• U.today said U.S. spot XRP ETF net inflows have reached 1.7–1.8 billion, and that Evernorth’s XRPN vehicle is expected to list on Nasdaq on October 8.

Elliott Wave framing and the levels above

More Crypto Online placed the short-term setup inside a larger Elliott Wave structure that begins near the August low around $0.985, treating the recovery from that low as potentially impulsive. That reading requires a complete five-wave advance rather than a three-wave rebound. In that framework, $1.67 is the first hurdle, with $1.93 and $2.25 appearing further up if the sequence develops, and a wider Fibonacci zone between roughly $2.14 and $2.99. The same analysis previously marked $1.10 to $1.38 as support and $0.985 as the broader invalidation reference.

The sequencing matters: the immediate $1.53 trigger is separate from the longer-range targets, which depend on additional confirmations. XRP would first need the four-hour close, then a challenge of $1.62, before the higher levels become technically relevant.

Whale balances stay flat

U.today reported that large holders have not moved: aggregate XRP whale balances sit at 3.9 billion tokens even as volatility compresses. The outlet framed the passivity as a question rather than a verdict — without large-player liquidity, a move higher could prove to be a false breakout, but the same analysis noted that large wallets accumulated heavily over recent months and reads the pause as patience ahead of scheduled events.

The two reports differ on the immediate downside reference. U.today said a failure to clear the $1.52–$1.54 zone would send price back to test support at $1.46, while Blockonomi’s cited Elliott Wave work points to $1.10–$1.38 as support with $0.985 as invalidation — a wider scope than the near-term $1.46 level. U.today also listed $1.70 as a level following $1.62, which Blockonomi’s sources did not mention.

Why it matters

XRP sits at a point where chart structure and scheduled corporate news are converging. A confirmed close above $1.53 could meet immediate demand from two dated catalysts, while continued failure keeps the token range-bound and exposes the downside support levels. For holders, the practical distinction is between an intraday push and a four-hour close, since the analysts define confirmation strictly on the closing period. Whale inactivity also means the move, if it comes, may depend on smaller buyers rather than the large wallets that drove earlier accumulation.

What to watch

The immediate signal is the next four-hour close relative to $1.53. Two dated events follow: U.today reported Evernorth’s XRPN vehicle is expected to list on Nasdaq on October 8, and the BatchV1_1 network upgrade is set for activation around October 8–9, enabling atomic settlements for Asian banking partners under the XRP Asia initiative. This article is not financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.

Sources: Blockonomi, U.today