Glassnode: 6.26 Million BTC Sits in Addresses With Exposed Keys

Roughly a third of all Bitcoin sits in addresses whose public keys are already visible on the blockchain. Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft estimated the exposed balance at more than 6.26 million BTC, or 31.2% of circulating supply, in figures published on October 8, 2026, Zycrypto reported.

The estimate covers coins whose key material is no longer hidden behind a hash. Its significance lies in what it would mean if quantum computing ever advanced far enough to work backward from a visible public key to the private key behind it. The warning arrived after Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake urged the blockchain industry to begin planning for what he called a controlled migration of assets, recommending that coins move to fresh addresses whose public keys remain concealed.

Key facts

• Schultze-Kraft’s estimate of 6.26 million BTC with exposed public keys equals 31.2% of supply, up from 24.8% in early 2021 and back to a level last seen in 2016.
• Of the total, 4.33 million BTC are exposed through address reuse, while 1.94 million BTC are exposed through transaction or script types, including about 1.71 million BTC in legacy Pay-to-Public-Key outputs.
• Roughly 1.1 million BTC in that category is attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
• Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges accounts for about 1.79 million BTC of the exposed total, with Schultze-Kraft estimating 10% exposure at Coinbase, 83% at Binance and 100% at Bitfinex.
• Cryptobriefing reported that exposed balances grew by 222,000 BTC since May 2026, while total Bitcoin supply grew by just 64,000 BTC over the same stretch.

Growth is outpacing new supply

Cryptobriefing placed the May 2026 reading of the same metric at 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of supply, meaning the exposed pile has expanded faster than Bitcoin issuance. Trading platforms alone added 123,000 BTC to their exposed holdings across that period, more than half of the total increase, according to Cryptobriefing. The outlet also reported that Robinhood shows 100% exposure, a figure that does not appear in the Zycrypto account.

Schultze-Kraft cautioned that the numbers “should not be construed as a risk rating, a signal of solvency, or a statement about the safety of any exchange or depository.”

Exposure does not only come from institutions. Some coins sit at addresses their owners may never move, whether because keys are lost or holders are inactive, and those balances cannot be migrated by anyone else. For exchanges, by contrast, shifting reserves to fresh addresses is an operational decision rather than a change to Bitcoin’s protocol.

Researchers split on timing and urgency

Drake argued the industry should brace for the possibility that ECDSA — the signature scheme Bitcoin uses — breaks before a quantum breakthrough day arrives, describing a worst case measured in months rather than years. He also raised the prospect that advances in artificial intelligence could accelerate mathematical work that weakens existing cryptography.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin pushed back on acting immediately. He said he did not recommend anyone scramble to move funds to new wallets today, and argued that the industry should weigh potential AI-related vulnerabilities alongside quantum risks.

The discussion unfolded alongside separate blockchain activity. On October 8, Lookonchain reported that a government-linked wallet moved 12,267 BTC, worth about $1.01 billion, to a newly created address, with the funds tied to Bitcoin seized in the 2016 Bitfinex hack. Another transfer of roughly 9,261 BTC, valued at $770 million, went to Coinbase Prime. The transfers do not establish that the government sold the coins or acted over quantum concerns, and they illustrate why wallet movements should be read separately from actual sales.

Why it matters

The trend line, rather than the 31.2% figure on its own, is what draws attention: the exposed share is climbing while discussion of quantum risk grows louder. Custodians with high exposure rates could face questions from customers about how reserves are structured and how quickly they could be rotated. For individual holders, the practical constraint is that only the owner of a key can move the coins behind it, which leaves inactive and lost-key balances outside anyone’s control.

What to watch

The metric to track is direction. If the exposed share continues past 31.2%, the distance between quantum discussion and actual preparation becomes harder to ignore, and the 1.79 million BTC on exchange books is the portion where change could happen fastest.

This article reports third-party estimates about cryptographic exposure and does not recommend buying, selling or moving any asset. Crypto markets are volatile and uncertain, and nothing here is financial advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.

Sources: ZyCrypto, Cryptobriefing