Bitcoin down 15.65% in 2026, near first back-to-back losses

Bitcoin is on course for the first pair of consecutive losing calendar years in its 18-year history, after finishing 2025 down 6.34% and falling a further 15.65% so far in 2026, according to Decrypt. The asset traded around $73,850 on November 10 and would need to return to its annual opening price of roughly $87,500 before December 31 to avoid the streak.

The scale of the 2026 loss depends on the reference price. Crypto Briefing reported that year-to-date figures as of November 13 range from a decline of 15.65% to more than 21%, with several measures landing between 18% and 21%. Decrypt put the 2026 figure at roughly 16% as of November 10, and the two outlets’ combined two-year estimates converge around 21% after compounding.

Key facts

• Bitcoin closed 2025 down 6.34% near $87,500, its second negative calendar year in three years.
• It was trading around $73,850 on November 10, 2026, and between $69,000 and $74,000 in mid-November, per Crypto Briefing.
• A finish above the 2026 opening price near $87,500 would require a gain of roughly 18.5% by December 31.
• Bitcoin peaked at approximately $126,000 in October 2025 and fell below $58,000 during 2026, a peak-to-trough decline exceeding 50%.
• The combined two-year drawdown of roughly 21% is far smaller than the 73.56% loss in 2018 or the 64.27% loss in 2022.

A mild streak set against brutal single years

The striking feature of the current run is how gentle it looks beside Bitcoin’s earlier collapses. Decrypt noted that the 2018 and 2022 bear markets wiped out most of investors’ holdings in a single year each, while the present back-to-back reds together amount to roughly a fifth of value.

The picture changes when measured from the market’s high rather than from January 1. Crypto Briefing described the move from the October 2025 peak to the June 2026 low below $59,000 as a decline of more than 50%, and Decrypt reported the same peak-to-trough scale using a low below $58,000 — a sharper fall than the two annual candles suggest. November has offered no relief: through November 10, Bitcoin was down more than 4% for the month.

Decrypt reported that analysts have pointed to Bitcoin’s growing institutional investor base, spot exchange-traded funds and deeper market liquidity as possible reasons its bear-market drawdowns have been shallower than in earlier cycles, while noting those changes have not prevented major price crashes. Crypto Briefing characterised the current price action as specific to Bitcoin rather than a sector-wide story, with no other major tokens or protocol developments meaningfully driving the moves.

Why it matters

Calendar-year returns are the scoreboard most institutional allocators and recent buyers use when judging performance, so a first-ever two-year losing record lands directly in quarterly reviews and allocation discussions. That is a reputational cost even where the arithmetic damage is modest — the same asset that fell more than 60% in 2022 also gained 155% the following year, and rose about 92% in 2019 after the 2018 crash. Investors who bought at the start of 2024, a year in which Bitcoin gained more than 120%, remain well ahead despite the subsequent slide.

What to watch

The only figure that settles the question is Bitcoin’s price on December 31 relative to its 2026 opening level near $87,500, a threshold Crypto Briefing described as a psychological line in the sand that any rally approaching it is likely to draw outsized attention. Roughly 50 days remained in the year as of Decrypt’s November 11 report. Any discussion of a third straight decline in 2027 remains a hypothetical scenario rather than a forecast.

This article is not financial advice, and cryptocurrency markets are volatile and uncertain; past annual returns do not indicate future results.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.

Sources: Crypto Briefing, Decrypt