Bitcoin mid-term holders cut exchange transfers to 4.4% from 40.4%

Bitcoin investors who acquired their coins six to twelve months ago have sharply reduced the share of moved supply heading to trading platforms, according to Cryptobriefing. Exchange-bound transfers from this cohort fell to 4.4% by mid-October from 40.4% in mid-June, based on CryptoQuant data analyzed by a contributor posting as IT Tech on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform.

Cryptobriefing reported that the decline came even as the group moved more coins in absolute terms, a detail echoed in a separate Ambcrypto report published two days earlier that also cited the same CryptoQuant data and placed the readings at June 17 and October 15.

Key facts

• The exchange-bound share of moving 6-to-12-month Bitcoin fell from 40.4% in mid-June to 4.4% by mid-October, per Cryptobriefing.
• Monthly movement volume for the cohort ranged between roughly 143,700 and 216,500 BTC, with the latest reading at about 205,400 BTC versus 157,700 BTC earlier, per Cryptobriefing.
• Exchange-bound amounts dropped from 63.8K BTC in June to 9.1K BTC by October, Cryptobriefing reported.
• Ambcrypto cited Whale Alert on a 2,878 BTC transfer worth nearly $234.28 million between unknown wallets and an 888 BTC withdrawal from Kraken worth about $72.82 million, totalling roughly $307.1 million.
• Ambcrypto, citing CoinGlass, reported a positive spot netflow of $18.65 million at the time of its writing.

What the on-chain measure captures

The metric tracks Bitcoin aged six to twelve months that moved within the previous 30 days, then measures what portion of that moved supply ended up on an exchange. Because the total moved did not fall, the change reflects where coins went rather than how many changed hands.

Cryptobriefing noted that many in this cohort bought near or after the 2025 peak, and the analysis framed their behavior as a preference to retain holdings rather than realize profit now.

Whale moves and a conflicting flow reading

Ambcrypto reported that the two large whale transactions were consistent with the wider pullback in exchange-bound activity among older holders. It also flagged a contrast: spot netflows on exchanges were positive, implying inflows exceeded withdrawals, which can add to sellable supply. Ambcrypto said the netflow figure alone cannot show whether holders intended to sell, and described the mixed readings as leaving near-term supply conditions unclear.

At the time of its report, Ambcrypto said Bitcoin traded around $81,542 after failing to hold a recovery toward $87,333, putting the $80,000 level in focus. It cited a Chaikin Money Flow reading of -0.14 and an RSI of 46.42, below its 52.95 moving average, and pointed to liquidation clusters near that support zone.

Why it matters

Fewer mid-term coins heading to exchanges can ease immediate selling pressure from investors who tend to react quickly to price swings, and the analysis cited by Cryptobriefing suggested it could add a stabilizing effect. But Cryptobriefing also flagged the missing piece: fresh buying demand. Lower supply hitting exchanges can slow a decline without pushing prices higher on its own. The composition of the cohort also keeps shifting, as coins age past twelve months and newer purchases enter the group.

What to watch

Watch whether the 4.4% share holds or rebounds toward June levels, which would signal renewed sell pressure from this group. Also track the total movement volume, which sat near the top of its recent range at about 205,400 BTC, and demand-side signals such as spot netflows.

This article is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile and uncertain, and price movements can differ materially from what on-chain indicators suggest.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.

Sources: Crypto Briefing, Ambcrypto