J.P. Morgan Projects 10% Bitcoin Return Over the Next Decade

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has placed Bitcoin at the top of its long-horizon return table, projecting a 10% annual compound return over the next decade, according to Cryptobriefing. The estimate comes from the bank’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report and beats its own forecasts for US large-cap equities, gold and real estate investment trusts.

Cryptobriefing reported that the addition marks the first time Bitcoin has appeared in the annual publication at all. Bitcoin expects 10% a year against 7.5% for US large caps and 5.5% for gold, while the research ranks it as the highest-returning asset in the report’s history. Crypto.news, which covered the same document, put the forecast horizon at 10 to 15 years and noted the report covers more than 200 asset classes.

Key facts

• The 2027 LTCMA was published on October 19, 2026, with Bitcoin’s compound annual return placed at 10%.
• Comparable forecasts are 7.5% for US large-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold and, per Crypto.news, 8.2% for US REITs and 7.7% for US small caps.
• J.P. Morgan assigns Bitcoin 55% annualized volatility, against roughly 18% for large-cap equities and 17.2% for gold.
• Bitcoin’s arithmetic average return is estimated at 20.9%, about double the compound figure.
• Bitcoin is the only digital asset in the document, and it is excluded from the report’s sample portfolio allocations.

Return without a recommendation

The two return figures describe different things. An arithmetic average is the simple mean of each year’s result; a compound return is what an investor is left with after gains and losses interact over time. Large drawdowns weigh more heavily on the second measure, and a 55% volatility assumption makes that gap wider for Bitcoin than for equities or gold.

Crypto.news reported that J.P. Morgan kept Bitcoin out of its main covariance matrices, the inputs used to build long-term portfolios, and instead provided a separate, smaller matrix comparing it with selected public-market assets. The outlet attributed the exclusion to Bitcoin’s volatile performance and unstable correlations with conventional assets. The two reports agree on that omission but frame it differently: Cryptobriefing described it as a gap between acknowledging an asset and recommending it, while Crypto.news tied it to the report’s caution that dollar concerns do not automatically push investors into crypto.

Bitwise CIO flags the change

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, drew attention to the forecast in a post on X on October 20, according to Crypto.news. He wrote that J.P. Morgan had added Bitcoin to its capital market assumptions and projected it as the best performer over the next decade. Both outlets reported that Hougan also noted the qualifications attached to the forecast; Bitwise runs crypto investment products, so its executive has a commercial interest in the market’s growth.

J.P. Morgan’s earlier research included short-term targets around $170,000 and a long-term parity level of $266,000, a scenario in which Bitcoin matches gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, Cryptobriefing reported. Crypto.news did not repeat those figures. Bitcoin traded near $82,000 at the time of the reports.

Why it matters

The report is the bank’s 31st annual edition, and Bitcoin’s arrival in the tables ends a period in which large asset managers left the asset out of formal long-horizon modelling. Institutional planners who build assumptions from this document now have a number to work with, even if the allocation decision stays with them. Traditional portfolios have not been ignored: Crypto.news reported a 7% annualized projection for a 60/40 stock-and-bond mix, and roughly 5.3% for global aggregate bonds, the highest for that category in two decades. J.P. Morgan also said it raised its US large-cap forecast by 0.8 percentage points from the prior edition.

What to watch

The clearest marker of change would be Bitcoin moving from the forecast table into the model allocations in a later edition, which Cryptobriefing flagged as the more consequential step. J.P. Morgan says the assumptions are refreshed yearly and are built from market conditions through September 30, 2026.

These are long-horizon projections, not recommendations, and they do not guarantee Bitcoin will outperform any of the assets named. This is not financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.

Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto.news