Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase to Underweight, Target to $120
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Morgan Stanley moved Coinbase Global (COIN) to Underweight from Equalweight on November 2, 2026, and cut its price target to $120 from $258 — a reduction of about 53%, according to CoinCentral. The stock slid about 4% on Monday to trade near $138, just above its 52-week low of $136.89, and it has fallen 58% over the past year.
CoinCentral reported that analyst Michael Cyprys pointed to recent trading trends and a softer revenue outlook, and also cited uncertainty across crypto after Binance’s $6.3 billion hack. The bank still counts Coinbase among the strongest competitors in the sector, but expects profits to recover more slowly than it first thought.
Key facts
- Rating: Underweight, down from Equalweight; price target $120, down from $258.
- Coinbase traded near $138 on Monday after slipping about 4%; the 52-week low is $136.89.
- Morgan Stanley cut 2027 and 2028 revenue forecasts by 28% and 18%, and adjusted EBITDA estimates by 47% and 25%.
- The new 2028 EBITDA estimate is $2.4 billion, 14% below 2025 levels, and the target EBITDA multiple dropped to 12 times from 20 times.
- Coinbase reported Q3 net revenue of $1.16 billion, down about 34% year on year, with adjusted EBITDA of $333 million beating consensus.
What the downgrade does to the numbers
Crypto Briefing reported that the new $120 target sits below Coinbase’s October 30 close of $143.54, meaning Morgan Stanley sees further downside in a stock that has already fallen sharply. Both outlets agree the multiple and the earnings estimates were cut at the same time, which compounds the effect on the target; Crypto Briefing also noted the bank said considerable risks remain to both earnings and valuation.
The outlets differ slightly on when the results landed. CoinCentral put Coinbase’s Q3 report on October 29, while Crypto Briefing said October 30. CoinCentral reported net income of $719 million, mostly from gains on crypto investments, adjusted net income of $78 million, and a Friday selloff that hit Coinbase by more than 13% at midday, Circle by over 9% and Strategy by about 8%.
The peer reaction: Citizens kept Market Outperform with a $280 target, H.C. Wainwright held Buy with $240, Mizuho cut to $145 and stayed Neutral on weak trading, Canaccord cut to $275 and kept Buy, and US Tiger Securities moved its target to $230, blaming market headwinds rather than company issues. Crypto Briefing framed Morgan Stanley as joining a crowd of late-October target cuts.
Why it matters
Coinbase is the largest US-listed crypto exchange, so downgrades tied to trading volume feed directly into how public-market investors price crypto exposure. Trading activity still drives a large share of how the company is valued, and when traders step back, exchange revenue tends to follow. The 12-times multiple also matters: past rough stretches, CoinCentral noted, pushed valuations toward 10 times, so a further de-rating is not out of the frame the bank itself uses.
The original bullish case assumed a 2026 earnings reset and a sharp 2027 rebound built on higher crypto prices, more retail activity, wider product adoption and operating leverage. Morgan Stanley has now walked back that timeline.
What to watch
The next concrete test is the company’s disclosure and guidance around trading volumes heading into the fourth quarter, plus whether other banks follow with further cuts after their late-October revisions. Crypto Briefing also noted a security breach at Binance has deepened sector uncertainty and weighed on volumes, which is the variable most likely to move Coinbase’s trajectory.
This is not financial advice, and the market for crypto-linked equities is volatile and uncertain.
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment, financial or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.
Sources: CoinCentral, Crypto Briefing, Mint
